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Post by Eric Read on Aug 2, 2010 10:01:27 GMT
An interesting thread, and I can confirm that oufc 1975 is talking factually, and from a very informed position. I won't, for obvious reasons, reveal how I know this to be the case, but believe me he's talking very much as someone who cares about this club in the same way that we all do.
In the coming weeks and months he will either be proved right or he will be proved wrong. I know which one my money is on. But when he's proved right it will be because one of two different scenarios has occured. Either the club and stadium will have been taken over by these people (or talks will have begun), or there will be a cashflow shortfall (for whatever reason) and the current owner will allow us to drift along rather than push on and make the most of the current momentum.
I very much hope it is not the latter.
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Post by SuperOx on Aug 2, 2010 11:36:49 GMT
I would be staggered and terribly worried if there were a significant hole in the club's cashflow this coming season.
Something would have to have gone seriously wrong for that to happen, surely.
4,000 season ticket sales, Wembley receipts, Football League media rights money etc and a new sponsorship deal with Bridle Insurance should mean we are cash positive this season notwithstanding the quarterly rent and a higher, albeit marginal, wage bill for 2010/2011 apparently.
I do agree that if IL does not have the wherewithal to take the club forward then these new investors/potential suitors should be invited and discussions must be had as Eric Read is hinting that there could be some exciting developments around the corner.
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Post by slappy on Aug 2, 2010 12:10:18 GMT
An interesting thread, and I can confirm that oufc 1975 is talking factually, and from a very informed position. I won't, for obvious reasons, reveal how I know this to be the case, but believe me he's talking very much as someone who cares about this club in the same way that we all do. I am curious as to OUFC1975s motivation for spreading this information - is it to alert the rest of us that there is potentially a serious alternative to the Lenagans? It seems he/she is a bit too open with what is presumably confidential information. Why does there have to be either a takeover or a cashflow shortfall? After 4 years WPL seem to be getting things right off the pitch. Whilst wages will have gone up for L2, the club also has more youth funding, presumably tv money again, and I think there may be a "golden hello" to the league too. ST sales are up, hopefully there will be more away fans, and on the day home fans too. (Wembley money and bonuses were presumably all accounted for in the 2009/10 season.) I'm not sure what you mean by drifting along. A consolidation year in L2 but still being run so as not to lose money? Or is the alternative to "invest" (ie lose money) in a promotion bid? Or is it the lack of progress on the stadium? The danger is I suppose that if we get a poor start and are never in the push for the play-offs, we would lose the positive fans' momentum and we would see match attendances drop, and 2011/12 season ticket sales decline? ,and then be at serious risk of losing money, with no willingness to fund that by IL
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Post by Eric Read on Aug 2, 2010 12:13:44 GMT
I hope the cashflow scenario doesn't happen, but it did last year, so don't rule it out.
It SHOULDN'T hapen, but that doesn't mean it can't or won't.
Just suppose that a big chunk of the Season Ticket money has been used to pay HMRC, a few other creditors, and the wages and rent through the summer. Then imagine a situation where we only have one home match in a calendar month (November or December are possibles here, as we only have two scheduled home matches and we all know how easy it is to get a game postponed at the Kassam Stadium!). That one match would probably produce somewhere around £50,000 in receipts (we've already had the season ticket money remember). With monthly outgoings of (say) £80,000 in players wages, £40,000 in rent, £30,000 in non playing wages, let alone all other sundry outgoings it's not difficult to have a problem. And I have been very conservative in my outgoings here.
I'm not trying to cause undue alarm, but merely illustrating how easy it is to be in a short/medium term negative cash flow situation when running a football club that relies almost exclusively on matchday receipts for it's income. Now if this situation arose (as it did last year) and our owner would not provide the temporary funds required (as he wouldn't last year) you can see how things could come to a head. If the people who supplied the temporary funding last time wouldn't help out this time we would have a problem.
As I've said I really hope this doesn't happen, but it could, and it would be bloody criminal, in my opinion, to allow such a situation if you were the owner and you had spurned reasonable offers for your shareholding.
There's a lot of peoples' emotional investment at stake here and sometimes that should be worth more than one man's financial intransigence. A football club owner has a responsibility to those people as well as to his own wallet.
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Post by YellowJ on Aug 2, 2010 15:32:40 GMT
Season Tickets that have been purchased on the 'pay monthly' scheme are being funded directly by the club this season and not through a financial institution.
The club will receive a regular monthly income (with added interest) until October, instead of receiving all the money up front. In my opinion, this can only help with cash flow during the first half of the season.
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chip
Junior Member
Posts: 60
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Post by chip on Aug 2, 2010 20:35:42 GMT
How much would he sell te club for? As he has stopped putting money in, and isnt owed a vast amount in loans, i question whether we would be better off without him as we have Kelvin Thomas, and other decent people at the football club now. If Someone else owned the club (Someone who had the interests of the club at heart, and not an outsider) would Oxford United be better off? You reckon £3M isn't a 'Vast amount'? You loaded? I think IL would find being called an 'Outsider' and it suggested we might be better off without him very insulting and hurtful. IL is one of the main reasons we have a Club left to support!! Why are you questioning him now? He's recently committed himself to the Club, gets on famously with KT and CW and seems altogether happy to continue to back OUFC- so what's the problem? The problem is that IL has stated that he is not prepared to invest anymore in the club.He has also stated that he has had 3 offers to buy the club. I can assure you that there are buyers with the money to buy both the club and the stadium. These people would have the future of Oxford United at heart not Wigan RFC. The club has a great Manager and CEO, but it lacks the investment to move up to the next level. Promotion cannot be won on money from the fans alone it needs inward investment from outside sources which IL seems unable to attract. It is time for a change of ownership, promotion this season is an acheivable target well within the abilities of a club the size of OUFC.
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Post by SuperOx on Aug 2, 2010 21:12:40 GMT
Not sure I fully agree that we can't go to the next level with IL at the helm. Good management can achieve another promotion.
Dagenham got promoted on peanuts and Exeter had a small budget when they went through this league.
Where I do agree is the lack of ancillary income streams. Those additional sources are vital and would come from owning and developing the stadium.
The thought that there are life long fans...not just 'people'... with significant wealth from building a successful business is very appealing.
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Post by Londonroader on Aug 2, 2010 21:14:21 GMT
You reckon £3M isn't a 'Vast amount'? You loaded? I think IL would find being called an 'Outsider' and it suggested we might be better off without him very insulting and hurtful. IL is one of the main reasons we have a Club left to support!! Why are you questioning him now? He's recently committed himself to the Club, gets on famously with KT and CW and seems altogether happy to continue to back OUFC- so what's the problem? The problem is that IL has stated that he is not prepared to invest anymore in the club.He has also stated that he has had 3 offers to buy the club. I can assure you that there are buyers with the money to buy both the club and the stadium. These people would have the future of Oxford United at heart not Wigan RFC. The club has a great Manager and CEO, but it lacks the investment to move up to the next level. Promotion cannot be won on money from the fans alone it needs inward investment from outside sources which IL seems unable to attract. It is time for a change of ownership, promotion this season is an acheivable target well within the abilities of a club the size of OUFC. I would think it wouldn't take a vast amount of money to move forward as a club, but if we lose this current momentum and the good feel factor and crowds wain, and if there is no external revenues coming in it could all go pop, and we drift on as we have in the previous 10 years prior to last season. 1 step forward 2 back !
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Raggles
Full Member
Is Everything Rosie?
Posts: 112
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Post by Raggles on Aug 2, 2010 22:13:24 GMT
Lenagan has told the fans, he isn't prepared to invest further and hasn't invested for some time. It has been left to the goodwill of others to prop it up. The club had cash-flow issues and managed to strike gold when Wilder led the club to promotion. That achievement was vital, I dread to think what the aftermarth would have been!!
He then had a shuffle in the Board Room with the introduction of his family and Rosenthal. Subsequently, Merry is cast aside and his share in WPL made worthless by the issuing of additional shares. Clever man!
The presentation then revolved around the regeneration of Grenoble Road, the financial benefits must be a key motive. I think the intentions seem quite clear. Meanwhile, the CEO is tasked with keeping the ship afloat whilst WPL look to finance any stadium deal with the 'help' again of others.
It is quite probable the club will find tough times again as Mr Eric Read painted, one or two home games in a four-six week period and the soft debts which need servicing, plus the rent, plus the wages will pinch the club. All this to contend with and an owner who states he won't put more money in, an owner whose love is rugby.
On the other hand, it seems we have some serious interest along with other bids which he mentioned. OUFC1975 who I find honest and truthful claims that one of which are ardent fans, wealthy fans, who want to buy the club and take it forward. These people are deadly serious from what I understand, we haven't had this type of owner for some significant time.
If IL isn't interested in anything other than Oxford United Football Club then its time he moves aside for the benefit of our club and the people of Oxfordshire, probably making a tidy sum along the way.
From where I am standing, we have an exciting opportunity about to come to a head.
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Post by paulayres on Aug 3, 2010 6:02:07 GMT
Its time for some honesty from the owners of the club. The fact that it was stated that WPL are 2 years away from buying the stadium with a funding of £5m in the bag is I feel a bit of a spin. The £5m would be raised against the stadium and therefore is not "new" money. If what is being said is true then WPL should step aside and let new owners take over. It concerns me that in Feb/March this year the club had to go cap in hand to 3rd parties to raise cash to pay wages. It would appear that even with the monies raised from the playoff games there loans are still outstanding.
I would give 100% support to new owners if they can prove that they have the club at heart and they could buy the stadium now not in 2 years time.
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Post by slappy on Aug 3, 2010 22:00:17 GMT
Funny these new buyers turn up once the club is back in the league, being run on a break even for the first time in years, and with the potential to run at a profit going forward and repaying debt.
OUFC1975, Raggles, Paul Ayres, you all seem to be the same message of Lenagan bad, new fans takeover good. It seems to be based on the idea the takeover bid have spare cash to lose their own money (sorry invest) and take the club on up. Is this by signing higher league players on big salaries and long contracts? Where did that get us last time?
Or is it by buying the stadium? How is this funded? Or is the stadium magically self-funding once profits go to OUFC?
At least Eric Read and Londonroader (and Snake, Scoob et al if they reappear ) are posting sensible arguments.
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Post by Chet Lemon on Aug 3, 2010 22:16:44 GMT
But Slappy you are just assuming that this 'interest' is only relatively recent. IL said he has had 3 bids to buy the club how do we know that these weren't from the person OUFC1975 knows, which could have been made at any period over the last 4 years.
I would certainly be keen to learn more about this potential scenario. You raise some good questions about funding and the business plan. IL has confirmed that he won'tput any more money in so it would be interesting to see how this person would approach managing the club. We could face an interesting situation in the near future. Let's hope we find out more in time.
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Post by m on Aug 4, 2010 7:55:31 GMT
Would any of those ITK about these potential new investors care to share their thoughts on why it doesn't appear that any deal can be done with Ian Lenegan?
Specifically I'm referring to some kind of partnership. IL has stated that further outside investment will be required after all...
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Post by dr hitchings on Aug 4, 2010 9:11:50 GMT
Would any of those ITK about these potential new investors care to share their thoughts on why it doesn't appear that any deal can be done with Ian Lenegan? Specifically I'm referring to some kind of partnership. IL has stated that further outside investment will be required after all... Good point- I was going to post something similar. Surely it makes sense for anyone looking to invest in Oxford, to examine the possibilities of a stake in WPL before looking at outright ownership. It would be great news if there are genuine Oxford fans out there with money, but let's not forget that Lenegan's sons are also reputed to be fans and that WPL have also given us arguably our best ever chairman. If there is serious talk of buying the ground, then surely this is more realistic with WPL still involved in addition to new money?
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Post by slappy on Aug 4, 2010 11:14:50 GMT
As Chet says, the 3 buy offers could have been at anytime - particularly whilst we were still in a very uncertain Conference position.
If they were reasonable offers, why wouldn't the Lenagans have bitten their arm off, if it meant getting their money back and leaving the club in safe hands? It seems a high risk strategy to hold out for a higher purchase price based on being back in the League, if that was their intention.
Some say the Lenagans are in it to make some money on the back of stadco, but this seems as far off as ever, so surely a simple club takeover would be an easy way out.
Why have the Lenagans put the two sons on the board, plus Rosenthal, and have used the Wigan Finance Director? Seems like a long term project for the club to me.
Why didn't these Fans and Lenagan create a new partner in WPL, with the Fans putting in £3.25MM like Lenagan has, sharing the ownership 50:50, and the club then has £2.35MM spare cash to "invest"?
The cashflow shortfalls shouldn't happen again until spring next year, as the season ticket money, friendlies, cup fixtures and match day revenues should tide the club over until then, unless these Fans call their loans back in. Still, if the forecasts are too optimistic and IL again refuses to fund any shortfall this would be a problem.
4 1/2 years ago it was Anyone But Kassam. We got Merry and Lenagan. Now we are supposedly pinning our hope on Fans who I suspect 99% of us have never heard of. At least with Lenagan we now know the club is being run on a financially sound basis, but there is no extra in reserve.
Whatever happens, it seems that 99% of us will simply hear about it after the event, and have to wait and see what journey that takes us on.
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Raggles
Full Member
Is Everything Rosie?
Posts: 112
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Post by Raggles on Aug 4, 2010 12:26:06 GMT
The regeneration deal is likely to be very profitable and you could assume the reason only 50% of the funding has been raised, is because WPL can't find the other 50% or don't want too. Hypothetically, if the 50% which has been identified represented loans and mortgages, then why would a new partner want to invest their hard cold cash for someone else to prosper?
Ian Lenagan was honest at the forum, it was a pleasure to see. He said he was here because of his sons, one of which seems to have no day-to-day involvment, whilst the other has done wonders with the Youth Department. He described his aims as building something for his family once he was no longer around; or words to that. He wants to make money along the way.
As for the break-even figures Slappy points too, figures which have been propped up by external loans. The Whitehead sell-on was sold to a third party, who was that? Why?
Why the shuffling amongst the board, well that is down to the 'departure' or 'MIA' of Mr Merry and probably his share he held in WPL. You're not naive Slappy, I have respect for you, I think you can work out why WPL issued 50,000 new shares. You see it as a long-term project, on the other hand the board movement may have helped short-term to address other issues.
Fans won't believe anything until someone involved makes comment about it, at which point, supporters may be given the opportunity to listen to the different parties and make their own judgments.
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Post by paulayres on Aug 4, 2010 14:23:20 GMT
Funny these new buyers turn up once the club is back in the league, being run on a break even for the first time in years, and with the potential to run at a profit going forward and repaying debt. OUFC1975, Raggles, Paul Ayres, you all seem to be the same message of Lenagan bad, new fans takeover good. It seems to be based on the idea the takeover bid have spare cash to lose their own money (sorry invest) and take the club on up. Is this by signing higher league players on big salaries and long contracts? Where did that get us last time? Or is it by buying the stadium? How is this funded? Or is the stadium magically self-funding once profits go to OUFC? At least Eric Read and Londonroader (and Snake, Scoob et al if they reappear ) are posting sensible arguments. Sorry but all I am asking for is some honesty from the current owners regarding the purchase of the stadium and investment in the club. IL has been honest in clearly stating that he is not willing to put anymore investment into the club. He has also said that he can raise £5m towards the purchase of the stadium. He also has put on record that he has had 3 offers for the club. What he has imo failed to explain is that the club was in a position back in March where they had to go cap in hand to borrow money from some fans to pay the wage bill, why was that?? He also imo failed to explain that the £5m was based on a loan against the stadium, not from his own pocket. The fact that he has his 2 sons on the board means jackshit. If there are offers on the table to buy the club and he has no intention to invest anymore money then these offers should be made public and therefore the supporters would be able to make a measured judgement. Why would any investor want to support the club financially if the other partner is refusing to put any more money in. To me if there are potential buyers out there who have the money to buy both the club and the stadium then they should be taken seriously. How much does IL want for the club? ? What would you feel is a reasonable amount for IL to want?? The club may well be in the FL but to my mind that is more to do with Wilder and the fan who covered the money to buy players like Constable and Batt, in addition to the loan to bail the club out in Feb/March.
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Post by m on Aug 4, 2010 14:51:56 GMT
"Hypothetically, if the 50% which has been identified represented loans and mortgages, then why would a new partner want to invest their hard cold cash for someone else to prosper?" Why would that have to be the case? "He also imo failed to explain that the £5m was based on a loan against the stadium, not from his own pocket" That's a lie. "Why would any investor want to support the club financially if the other partner is refusing to put any more money in. " For the love of the club, apparently. Seriously though, why wouldn't they?
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Post by m on Aug 4, 2010 14:54:43 GMT
"Sorry but all I am asking for is some honesty from the current owners regarding the purchase of the stadium and investment in the club."
That's the funniest statement of all!
You're asking no such thing - you're taking a chance to bash the club, as usual!
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Post by Marked Ox on Aug 4, 2010 15:23:16 GMT
The regeneration deal is likely to be very profitable and you could assume the reason only 50% of the funding has been raised, is because WPL can't find the other 50% or don't want too. Hypothetically, if the 50% which has been identified represented loans and mortgages, then why would a new partner want to invest their hard cold cash for someone else to prosper? Ian Lenagan was honest at the forum, it was a pleasure to see. He said he was here because of his sons, one of which seems to have no day-to-day involvment, whilst the other has done wonders with the Youth Department. He described his aims as building something for his family once he was no longer around; or words to that. He wants to make money along the way. As for the break-even figures Slappy points too, figures which have been propped up by external loans. The Whitehead sell-on was sold to a third party, who was that? Why? Why the shuffling amongst the board, well that is down to the 'departure' or 'MIA' of Mr Merry and probably his share he held in WPL. You're not naive Slappy, I have respect for you, I think you can work out why WPL issued 50,000 new shares. You see it as a long-term project, on the other hand the board movement may have helped short-term to address other issues. Fans won't believe anything until someone involved makes comment about it, at which point, supporters may be given the opportunity to listen to the different parties and make their own judgments. With regards to your comments about the regeneration deal: How is the regeneration deal likely to be as profitable as you suggest? Where is the vast profit going to come from as nobody has yet answered that when making these claims? Furthermore, if it is going to be so profitable why wouldn't WPL want to find the funding as you suggest with your comment about them not wanting to find the funding as it would make a return on their investment quicker? Also, if somebody was to partner WPL by putting the funding difference in they would share in the same amount of the scheme's profit as the % they put in (assuming they negotiate sensibly)! Many businesses operate using a mix of equity and loans/mortgages! Remember IL has already put in £3m or so into OUFC which although a loan, he isn't charging interest and so is losing money in real terms. With regards to your comments surrounding break-even last season: The operating profit of £8k was achieved by the income being more than the costs for OUFC, not the loan (which will have helped cashflow though and was obviously needed over the various times drawn upon) propping up the small profit. Of course, in addition to the £8k there was a profit of £694k on player transactions (Deano etc) as well. Of course, with promotion we will get additional TV money and Youth Funding of approx £610k which is new money so should help the clubs financial position/cash-flow (incl. repaying approx. half of the supporters loan (that they helpfully provided). Furthermore, the new sources of income coupled with the experiences of last year, the determination of KT to be sensible with budgeting and maintaining cost control would in my opinion mean the club avoiding cashflow issues again any time soon (unless something drastic happens). Remember, we're up to date with HMRC (which we weren't and potentially in trouble when KT came in again if reports are true) and have no debt with financial institutions which may explain the selling of Deano's sell-on clause, assuming it is actually true that the clause was sold on which I don't know either way. With regard to your comments surrounding the Board reshuffle: With Slappy seeing it as a long-term project (and I agree with that view about a long-term project as IL etc have said that), and you suggesting the Board changes was addressing short-term issues. I don't believe KT or IL have said everything is now totally hunky-dory, so where is the contradiction in the 2 positions? Furthermore, the Board needed strengthening and the additions make sense with Simon L appearing to already be doing a good job on the Youth/Community side anyway with many local links developing. As for WPL issuing 50,000 new shares, IL has taken full control, why is that so sinister as you imply with your comment 'I think you can work out why WPL issued 50,000 new shares'? Didn't he have a bond/debenture anyway with WPL giving him effective control anyway, does that still exist or has that been transferred into equity? As for Nick Merry, he was hardly a blazing success, he obviously wanted the best for OUFC but he left OUFC in financial trouble. IL should have been watching the purse strings better with Merry in charge so takes some of the blame for that financial position but at least he is looking to rectify that financial situation. Furthermore, IL reappointed KT who has driven OUFC forward financially, on the field and off the field as a club since then. Overall, I don't have a problem with IL and family making money out of OUFC as long as it is not at the expense of OUFC. Iirc, IL did cover in past fans forums that he would like to make money from OUFC but it would only happen long-term, if at all. As IL said in the forum, he wants to restore the stadium and Club under the same banner which hopefully means that any stadium profits go to OUFC. Hopefully, also if these people really do want to put their money in then it would be good to hear their side as long as it doesn't destabilise the club.
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