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Post by charliesghost on Jan 19, 2011 11:29:25 GMT
Looking at the run of fixtures, the next month will more or less decide whether we're going to have a serious run at promotion or no.
We've got a glut of games, many/ almost all of them tricky.
Northampton away, Shrewsbury home, Cheltenham home, Southend away, Gills away, Rotherham home, Stevenage away.
Compare and contrast with our last month or two, which contained at least three games which looked "eminently winnable"
If we come out of those seven games still within a point or three of the play-offs, we've got a great chance of making it. Our following two games, for instance, are against Hereford and Morecambe. Equally, it's easy to imagine us hitting another weak patch and slipping down into mid-table obscurity.
I'm just finding it impossible to calibrate us. We're perfectly capable of out-playing and beating the best (Port Vale, Chesterfield etc), but equally capable of throwing in total stinkers (Southend, Accrington, Torquay). We can look stylish but toothless. Equally, we can look scrappy and effective.
Craddock and Beano can look like class acts. Equally, they can look like they're out of their depth. Our midfield can dominate; equally, it can be totally overrun, especially if a team has done its homework on pressurising our 4-3-3 high up the pitch.
The one thing that is giving me some hope of achieving the greater consistency required to make the play-offs is that we effectively started the New Year with three new calm, classy, experienced players who have cut it at a higher level than this: Maclean, McLaren and Jake Wright (who missed almost all our bad run; no coincidence there). Basically, this is now our "spine" (with the excellent Ryan Clarke), and they all have the priceless ability to slow us down, stop panic and make us play the right way: crucial for the talented, less experienced guys like Batt, Heslop, Potter, Craddock, Beano et al.
Whereas, during our bad run, we were starting to lump it forward, allow our forwards to get isolated and make panicky mistakes at the back, there are signs (leaving out the Southend nightmare) that we're starting to re-impose our own style on opponents (Aldershot and Bradford aren't mugs).
My own prediction at the start of the season was that we'd be top five. And I'm (just about) happy to stick with that. But it will probably be largely dependent on Clarke-Wright-McLaren-Maclean staying fit, well and in form for all the next month. Here's hoping!
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Post by malcolmnl on Jan 19, 2011 12:07:00 GMT
That sounds like a pretty good definition of football to me.
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Post by Oxford Nondie on Jan 19, 2011 13:00:49 GMT
Until the Bradford game although we were winning, hopes of playoffs were just on my wish list.
Now after the Bradford game, as Charlie points out, with the spine of the team all experienced pro's we produced a style football that even Wenger would be happy with.
Whether that confidence and style can be continued over the next 5 crucial games is the question that needs to be answered.
Over Widlers current reign Oxford has constantly let us down at key moments ( play offs excluded )
However I believe and so should you all, we now can at worse make the play offs.
ps The trial is still out on 433, while we just do not have the personal to even play 442.
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Post by scoob on Jan 19, 2011 13:47:08 GMT
Whilst I agree with much of the original post I am not so sure that the next month is any more critical than the following months.
In the period from 22 January to 19 February we have 8 games with 2 against teams in the play off places and 2 games against teams currently in the bottom eight so the other 4 are against mid table teams. 13 points (e.g. 4-1-3) should keeps us in touch with the play offs.
From 26 February to 27 March we have 7 games of which two are against teams currently in the play-off positions and five against teams in the bottom eight so that period could be just as crucial if we take the opportunity against the weaker teams.
In the final six weeks or so we have 8 games of which only one is against a mid-table team and 4 against current play off rivals so these are what some people regard as 6 pointers plus the other three are against teams currently in the bottom eight so we would hope to pick up significant points from there.
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Post by scoob on Jan 19, 2011 13:59:13 GMT
I really see it that we have some great opportunities to pick up points and affect the play off positions (hopefully in our favour) in the remaining games.
We still have 8 games agains the current play-off contenders (5 home, 3 away). So far we have collected eight points from six games against the top teams which is reasonable. The remaining games in this segment represent a great opportunity to claw our way up.
Our form against the mid table teams so far has been disappointing with 14 points from 11 games but we only have 5 more games against these teams (1 home and 4 away).
We have picked up 13 points in the 7 games against the teams in the bottom 8 which is reasonable 8 but only 1 point has been gained in 2 away games. If we maintain our home form in these games but do slightly better away then we should pick up a fair few points. We have 9 games left against teams in the bottom eight (3 home & 6 away).
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Post by slappy on Jan 19, 2011 14:02:40 GMT
I hadn't quite got the difference down to Wright, MacLean, McClaren. McClaren has only just come in the last 3 games. MacLean and Wright were both in the squad for three of our recent losses.
It seems partly to me to be the Wilder tactic of getting a settled winning squad after 6 months, chucking out 1/3 of the old ones, mixing it up with 2/3 new players and loanees, throwing half of the new ones back, and then bringing back them all back together with half an old squad and the better ones of the new players.
ie we are now back to clist, batt, and more of the team who started the season, midson back, craddock finally showing some goals for us, heslop and hall, plus the enhancements of maclean and mclaren.
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Post by charliesghost on Jan 19, 2011 14:41:03 GMT
I hadn't quite got the difference down to Wright, MacLean, McClaren. McClaren has only just come in the last 3 games. MacLean and Wright were both in the squad for three of our recent losses. It seems partly to me to be the Wilder tactic of getting a settled winning squad after 6 months, chucking out 1/3 of the old ones, mixing it up with 2/3 new players and loanees, throwing half of the new ones back, and then bringing back them all back together with half an old squad and the better ones of the new players. ie we are now back to clist, batt, and more of the team who started the season, midson back, craddock finally showing some goals for us, heslop and hall, plus the enhancements of maclean and mclaren. And minus Wotton, Futcher, Cole, Green and various others who have demonstrated that they won't consistently cut it for us! There's still a nagging doubt in my mind that a side that looks as hapless as we did against Southend can really be promotion contenders. We really were THAT bad. To the guy who said that Wright was "in the squad" for two recent defeats, that's irrelevant. When we've had a fit, un-suspended Wright in the starting line-up, we have looked immeasurably better. Likewise Maclean, who has probably shown a level of consistency of performance which Beano, Craddock et al can only dream of (bad against Southend, classy against all else). Haven't seen enough of McLaren yet, but we've been crying out for a ball-winner, and if he's that, and can keep the ball, then he'll make a huge difference and allow others to play.
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Post by Best Mate on Jan 19, 2011 14:47:20 GMT
It is a big month.
Its exciting to be involved at the 'right end' and I am hoping we can keep our run going.
Of those 7 games, if we can pick up 10 points I would be relatively satisfied. We would still be within 3 or 4 points of the play offs and they are a run of tough games
If we could actually 2 of the away games then we could pick up 13 points and I agree - we really will be in the mix.
I just hope, if it does not go quite as planned we are strong enough as a fan base to accept that this year has been a useful experience for the players and then really look to push on next year.
If we are in the mix - those 6 pointers at the end (assuming those teams are also still in the mix) would be superb.
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Post by slappy on Jan 19, 2011 15:00:50 GMT
The big change for me in the last 3 games (apart from Wright returning / Futcher going / Kinni subbed), has been Purkiss and Potter replaced by Batt. Also Payne seems to have come off the boil a bit once he had his contract sewn up. Green I'm undecided, he hasn't seen much play - perhaps the reasons Torquay sent him back to us apply this season in L2. Midson I think is overrated by the fans, but you can't dispute he has a different style to Constable for knock-ons and knock-downs which work when they aren't in the team at the same time.
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Post by Millman on Jan 19, 2011 16:55:10 GMT
For me clean sheets are now the priority. Having to score at least 2 goals every game just to win just makes things so much more difficult. If we can make ourselves more difficult to score against then I see no reason why we can't go on to make the play-offs as a long as we maintain our current form in front of goal. Keep on conceding like we are and I think we will finish upper mid table.
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zeus
New Member
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Post by zeus on Jan 19, 2011 18:04:30 GMT
Millman nails it
until we start to prove we can defend, I think we will always just be one or two points shy of the top seven
It is remarkable how poor we've looked at the back, particularly in the air, at times. At the start of term we were impenetrable
Still, during our poor run last season we were also dreadful in the air so it has proved fixable
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Post by Potters Right Boot on Jan 20, 2011 9:14:01 GMT
For me clean sheets are now the priority. Having to score at least 2 goals every game just to win just makes things so much more difficult. If we can make ourselves more difficult to score against then I see no reason why we can't go on to make the play-offs as a long as we maintain our current form in front of goal. Keep on conceding like we are and I think we will finish upper mid table. Don't agree, 4-3-3 is an attacking formation that serves us well with the current personnel. As long as we score more than the opposition we take the points!
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Post by charliesghost on Jan 20, 2011 10:24:46 GMT
Millman nails it until we start to prove we can defend, I think we will always just be one or two points shy of the top seven It is remarkable how poor we've looked at the back, particularly in the air, at times. At the start of term we were impenetrable Still, during our poor run last season we were also dreadful in the air so it has proved fixable Yes, I agree with this. Proper defending is crucial, especially if you are not exactly "free-scoring" as a team! But almost as important for us (without a big target man) is that we are able to play quick, passing football. Otherwise, the ball never even gets to our front three. It just lumps onto the head of the oppo centre backs who then can press us back onto our own 18 yard box. That is where, certainly, Wright and Maclean make a difference. Knocking the ball into feet, on the one hand, and protecting the ball when it HAS been knocked in on the other. If, and it is IF, Mclaren proves to be the efficient ball-winner we have lacked since Bulman in the Conference then we really could compete at the top.
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Post by dr hitchings on Jan 20, 2011 12:07:05 GMT
On the evidence of Saturday (and this has to be tempered by the fact that Bradford were quite woeful), Maclaren could have a major impact on the way we play, possibly as much so as Maclean.
He was able to receive the ball to feet from the defence, who had the confidence to play short passes to him rather than the the big hoof forwards.
Of course, not all teams are going to give us as much time on the ball and space as Bradford did, so it will be interesting to see how we cope against better opponents.
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Post by Rose Tinted Ostrich on Jan 20, 2011 12:26:27 GMT
I think that the clean sheets will come. We now have a settled back four, the back four that started the season extremely well. Hopefully we will not have too many injuries or suspensions in this department. IMO the acquisition of Sangare is a good one, he offers something which Creighton and Futcher did not offer and that is Pace. When either Wright or Worley were out earlier in the season I think struggled against any pacey players.
Worley seems to get better with each game and seems to have a very good understanding with Wright, it is imperative that those two play as many games together as possible. I prefer the current fullbacks, Batt and Tonks but we do have good backup in Purkiss and Kinni if required. Clarke is a very very good Keeper at this level, he deserves a little more luck.
I agree with the comments about McClaren, if we can keep the ball out of defence short to him, or any other of our midfielders for that matter we will do fine. It does seem that he is happy to sit deep and pull the strings which will give the likes of Heslop, Clist, Hall and Payne license to dash forward when required.
I don't think we will see another repeat of the Southend now, I don't think CW will allow it. I think everyone was so impressed with the performance against Bradford that CW will insist that the defence try to pass it out from the back unless it is necessary to clear the lines.
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Post by yellow1986fan on Jan 20, 2011 21:55:03 GMT
Bradford at home was by far and away the best performance from this team in a long long time. Clean sheets will come with a bit more lady luck, Harrad won't be a problem. I have belief that CW won't promotion
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Post by lordwilliam on Jan 20, 2011 22:53:18 GMT
Looking at the run of fixtures, the next month will more or less decide whether we're going to have a serious run at promotion or no. We've got a glut of games, many/ almost all of them tricky. Northampton away, Shrewsbury home, Cheltenham home, Southend away, Gills away, Rotherham home, Stevenage away. Compare and contrast with our last month or two, which contained at least three games which looked "eminently winnable" If we come out of those seven games still within a point or three of the play-offs, we've got a great chance of making it. Our following two games, for instance, are against Hereford and Morecambe. Equally, it's easy to imagine us hitting another weak patch and slipping down into mid-table obscurity. I'm just finding it impossible to calibrate us. We're perfectly capable of out-playing and beating the best (Port Vale, Chesterfield etc), but equally capable of throwing in total stinkers (Southend, Accrington, Torquay). We can look stylish but toothless. Equally, we can look scrappy and effective. Craddock and Beano can look like class acts. Equally, they can look like they're out of their depth. Our midfield can dominate; equally, it can be totally overrun, especially if a team has done its homework on pressurising our 4-3-3 high up the pitch. The one thing that is giving me some hope of achieving the greater consistency required to make the play-offs is that we effectively started the New Year with three new calm, classy, experienced players who have cut it at a higher level than this: Maclean, McLaren and Jake Wright (who missed almost all our bad run; no coincidence there). Basically, this is now our "spine" (with the excellent Ryan Clarke), and they all have the priceless ability to slow us down, stop panic and make us play the right way: crucial for the talented, less experienced guys like Batt, Heslop, Potter, Craddock, Beano et al. Whereas, during our bad run, we were starting to lump it forward, allow our forwards to get isolated and make panicky mistakes at the back, there are signs (leaving out the Southend nightmare) that we're starting to re-impose our own style on opponents (Aldershot and Bradford aren't mugs). My own prediction at the start of the season was that we'd be top five. And I'm (just about) happy to stick with that. But it will probably be largely dependent on Clarke-Wright-McLaren-Maclean staying fit, well and in form for all the next month. Here's hoping! We can beat anyone in this league on our day. There doesnt seem to be a team that is going to run away with the league.
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Post by scoob on Jan 21, 2011 1:37:43 GMT
Chesterfield, Crewe, Rotherham and Wycombe are looking pretty steady at the moment but Shrewsbury, Port Vale and Bury are all having a bit of a wobble with 10,10 & 8 points respectively from their last eight games. Definitely plenty to play for.
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Post by HKYellow on Jan 21, 2011 2:25:07 GMT
Basically from now is when CW and the players show their worth. KT has backed them, now its down to them to show how good they are. From tactical decisions by Chris, to every player proving their Football League material both for us and potential signings for other clubs.
In a way, its almost like start of the season again and a extremely motivational time.
Us the fans are already showing our worth by selling out Northampton in which if it hadnt been all ticket, would maybe have taken 2,500 or 3,000 which is fantastic
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Post by malcolmnl on Jan 21, 2011 8:40:44 GMT
Now I mean this seriously folks. This is a great positive-thinking thread. It warms the my heart to read this stuff. Let's keep that going 'cos we're going up!
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